Initial Claims Yo-Yo Down Again Zacks.com
As shown in the graph below (from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ ) after a big decline starting in April of last year, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance have become extremely erratic. This week it was time for some good news, as claims fell by 7,000 to 444,000, although part of that is because last week's numbers were revised upwards by 3,000, so in some ways it is more like a decline of 4,000.
The four-week moving average, which smooths out some of the week-to-week volatility, (and which is what is shown in the graph) fell by 4,750 to 458,500. While this week’s decline is welcome news, it is really not good enough. To really indicate the economy is on-balance creating jobs at a healthy pace, we need to see the number below 425,000, and preferably below 400,000. We are actually below that 425,000 level at 392,500 on a raw, not-seasonally-adjusted basis, but there are lots of seasonal factors in the job market, and so the unseasonally adjusted
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